Rett Hatcher & Company

Tuesday night was a very successful night for Mike Huckabee anyway you look at it. While no one has reached 1,191 delegates, Huckabee only has around 200 delegates as does Romney. (Mitt has a few more, Mike has a few less but they are about the same in the big picture)

John McCain had a very good night as well. He didn’t dominate, but with the help of Huckabee he blocked Romney from claiming a victory. McCain is now closing in on 700 delegates. It is true he has a very quick path to the nomination. Especially if both Huckabee and Romney stay in the race.

I am not saying either one should drop out, because they represent two totally different groups of the Republican party. Romney represents the northern economic conservative republicans, while Huckabee represents the southern/midwestern social conservatives.

Religion has had very little to do with actual votes cast with the exception of Romney dominating in Mormon states, with out any other real reason to explain those large victories. It is more of a coincident that social conservatives go to church, just like economic conservatives go to the yacht club. (Of course there are exceptions to both, but for the most part the generalization is true)

Huckabee definitely does not take votes from Romney and it is hard to suggest where Romney’s supporters would go as well. You have to know why a person is supporting a candidate to get in there head and Romney’s accusations that Huckabee’s supporters would vote for him were, well as Gov. Huckabee said himself “presumptuous and arrogant”. Most Huckabee supporters I have talked too say McCain is there second choice. (and I have talked to quite a few about this lately)
I know very few Romney supporters (probably because of my low net worth), but the few I do know say that Huckabee is there second choice.
So while we don’t know who is taking votes from who, it is very safe to say that Huckabee and Romney are splitting the conservative vote.

As it stands it would be very hard for either Romney or Huckabee to over take McCain’s lead.
McCain has 697 delegates.
Romney has 244 delegates.
Huckabee has 187 delegates.
The magic number to secure the nomination is 1,191.
That means John McCain is only 494 away from winning the nomination. Romney is 947 out and Huckabee is 1,004 delegates out.
This means that Romney or Huckabee would have to pick up twice as many delegates as McCain in every single contest from here on out. Every time the tie or out get out gained by McCain, Mac wins.
The only realistic scenario that could stop McCain is if Romney dropped and Huckabee picked up most all of his delegates.
IF this did happen, it would give Huckabee around 195 addition delegates (that is pretty conservative projection- 80%) and McCain would gain around 49.
This would give McCain 746 and Huckabee 382 and that means Huckabee would have roughly half the number of delegates that McCain has.
Still a very steep hill to climb, although if the conservatives are really as staunchly against McCain as Limbaugh says they are, Huckabee would stand to get a lot more money and become competitive in every state.
This would be a much longer race, probably taking a few more months than we are currently looking at, but McCain would still more than likely come out on top.

The numbers are just too much for either Romney or Huckabee to over come.

So what do I think we are heading towards?
Here is my guess as to what my bumper sticker will read come September…

(sorry about the poor design, it was the best I could do on short notice on PowerPoint)

I just don’t see the Straight Talk Express derailing on the way to St. Paul. Many say this is the GOP dream ticket. Of course I still would like to see Huckabee win the nomination and will be working for him until the end, but it is hard to say this isn’t an excellent ticket and in all honesty, it is the most electable ticket the GOP could possibly put up this year.

It may not be everybody’s first choice, but it will be a winner.