Monthly Archives: November 2007

Dick Morris: Huckabee IS a Fiscal Conservative!

Great article written by Dick Morris at RCP:

As Mike Huckabee rises in the polls, an inevitable process of vetting him for conservative credentials is under way in which people who know nothing of Arkansas or of the circumstances of his governorship weigh in knowingly about his record. As his political consultant in the early ’90s and one who has been following Arkansas politics for 30 years, let me clue you in: Mike Huckabee is a fiscal conservative.

A recent column by Bob Novak excoriated Huckabee for a “47 percent increase in state tax burden.” But during Huckabee’s years in office, total state tax burden — all 50 states combined — rose by twice as much: 98 percent, increasing from $743 billion in 1993 to $1.47 trillion in 2005.

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A Few Notes and Polls….

I really like what Marc Ambinder has to say…

He heads in the polls and there’s a good chance he will win, but still, but ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney faces serious challenges in Iowa. Here are six.

First, savvy consultants look at two numbers to project whether, if a particular election were held today, their candidate would win. One is the head to head — and Mitt Romney still leads, narrowly, in Iowa polls. The second is intensity — and here, Mike Huckabee’s surge breaks over the walls that the Romney Iowa organization has spent so many months carefully building. Every consultant would rather be behind by five points in the head to head match ups and ahead by double digits in terms of the level of intensity.

A little later…

Sixth: Timing. For all intents and purposes, the race in Iowa ends before Christmas. Probably the week before Christmas. Romney has little time to mount a counter-offensive. And the ramifications of going negative against Huckabee are unclear.

None of the above is to suggest that Romney is going to lose Iowa. But it does suggest that, at a minimum, that victory is not assured. Romney’s organizational is real and impressive, and note that Huckabee’s rise has not, so far, come at Romney’s expense.

Florida Poll

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research, conducted Nov. 25th-26th, 2007

  • Rudy Giuliani 26%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • John McCain 13%
  • Mitt Romney 12%
  • Fred Thompson 9%
  • Ron Paul 3%
  • Duncan Hunter 1%
  • Tom Tancredo 1%
  • Undecided (18%)

The poll was conducted Nov. 25 and 26 among 675 likely voters in the January Republican primary. It has a margin of error of about three-and-a-half percent

Strategic Vision GOP Iowa Caucus

  • Mitt Romney 26% (30%)
  • Mike Huckabee 24% (19%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 14% (12%)
  • Fred Thompson 10% (11%)
  • John McCain 7% (7%)

Survey of 600 likely caucus-goers was conducted November 23-25. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 9-12 are in parentheses.

Huckabee Locking up ‘Super Tuesday’ Delegates?

supertuesday.jpe

According to a Rasmussen Report poll in the Super Tuesday states, Mike Huckabee is TIED FOR 2ND, locking up 14% of the vote.  The poll results are as follows:

Rudy: 24%
Huckabee: 14%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 11%
Romney: 10%
Paul: 4%

Of course these results are expected to change based on the early caucus and primary votes taking place in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina in January.

If Huckabee can finish strong in Iowa, he is expected to fair well in the other early primary states.  Then, with 39% of delegates being selected on Super Tuesday, you can expect that Huckabee will surely pick up some more of those delegates! 

Holding steady at 2nd place in the Super Tuesday states is something that you would think would be BIG NEWS… well, it is… So get the word out!  Huckabee is poised NOW for a 2nd place finish on Super Tuesday!  The only way to win the nomination is by locking up those delegates… and we need to do whatever we can to ensure that Huckabee picks up as many as he possibly can!

Rasmussen

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

  • Rudy Giuliani 23%
  • Mitt Romney 15%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • John McCain 12%
  • Fred Thompson 12%
  • Ron Paul 5%

Survey includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Rasmussen Reports did not conduct survey interviews over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As a result, roughly one-fourth of the interviews for today’s update were completed on Monday night and the rest were completed before Thanksgiving.

Dobson Probably Won’t Back Romney

Very Interesting interview with Tim Minnory, Dobson’s right hand man…

Q: Let’s take a different prospect, of a Romney candidacy…

A: I think they’ll be some dampened enthusiasm for him, particularly in the South, because of the issue of Mormonism. But again, when the array of issues that he supports is arrayed against the issues that Hillary Clinton supports, the contrast will be starkly clear. When he gets to be - if he gets to be - the nominee of the Republican Party, it’ll be a new ballgame again. So a lot of people will be focusing on him and his issue positions moreso than they’ve been able to do while the field is so crowded.

A: Dr. Dobson has met with Mitt Romney?

Q: Yes, Mitt Romney stopped out earlier this year, I forget what month it was. It was a good conversation. He impressed us with his knowledge of the pro-life issues, particularly stem-cell research.

Q: Is he seen as a credible, viable candidate from the Focus view on values issues?

A: He’s very strong on values issues. If you’re asking me specifically whether Dr. Dobson as a private citizen would endorse a Mitt Romney, I believe it’s doubtful because of the tremendous difference in theological views. And a lot of our constituents regard theological views very seriously. As do we. All of this is why it is such an unsettled year. And why The New York Times can take that unsettledness and call it an evangelical crackup. I don’t think that’s the case. But these are the things that make it unsettled.

NH could be Big for Huck

I want to take a moment to thank all those out there who are tirelessly blogging and making videos…While this isn’t the Ron Paul movement, as far as top tier candidates we more than topple the competition…That said…Check out what looks to be positive in NH…

As Thompson traveled here Friday — amid at least one report that members in his own staff are questioning his motivation — a small crowd of less than 50 also seemed to lack an enthusiasm for the candidate. Throughout the roughly 20-minute speech, largely centered on national security, Thompson stopped several times for applause, yet there were only uninspired responses from the crowd. As Thompson entered the rustic VFW hall, the crowd had to be prompted to applaud by his campaign staffers in back of the room.

Phil Spencer, 79, was unmoved by the appearance. After meeting the former senator from Tennessee, he concluded that he was most likely going to vote for Huckabee in the New Hampshire primary.

“I think he would be a good fiscal conservative,” he said referring to Huckabee. The Thompson campaign and the Club for Growth have tried to prove otherwise.

My Feeling Exactly

Great Huck Interview…

“We penalize law-breakers. We don’t penalize their children for something they can’t help.”If a child is gasping for air, asthmatic, and he’s on the hospital steps, what do the other candidates suggest we do, let him sit there and gasp until he doesn’t have any air left and he dies? If a child comes to our school — and our law, by the way, in most of our states, mine certainly says you’ve got to educate a child if he’s of child age — what do you, break your own law and say, `No, you can’t come in the schoolhouse door’?

“No, you don’t do that. What you do is you elect a president who will fix the problem where it needs to be fixed: At the border. But if your government at the federal government is so incompetent that it fails to secure the border, you don’t then grind your heel into the face of a 6-year-old child over it. That’s not what this country does. We’re a better country than that.”

Stem Cell No Longer a Wedge Issue

Great read by Ryan Anderson…

The stem cell wars are over. Leading scientists are telling us that they can pursue the most promising stem cell research without using–much less killing–human embryos. This breakthrough enables researchers to create human embryonic stem cells directly from adult cells. In fact, the new method may actually prove superior to embryo-destructive alternatives. This is the biggest stem cell advance since James Thomson became the first scientist to isolate embryonic stem cells, less than a decade ago.

It is a new study by Thomson himself that has caused the present stir, but this time Thomson is not alone. Accounts of independent research by two separate teams of scientists were published on November 20–one in the journal Cell and one in the journal Science–documenting the production of pluri-potent human stem cells without using embryos or eggs or cloning or any morally questionable method at all.

The new technique is so promising that on November 16, Ian Wilmut announced that he would no longer seek to clone humans. Wilmut, you may remember, is the scientist who cloned Dolly the sheep. He recently sought and received a license from the British government to attempt to clone human embryos for research purposes. Now, citing the new technique, he has abandoned his plans.

It was only in 1998 that Thomson succeeded in isolating human embryonic stem cells. Though other types of human stem cells were known at the time (some were even in clinical trials), embryonic stem cells were thought to be the holy grail because they were believed to be more flexible.

They were “pluripotent”–capable, in theory, of developing into any type of body tissue–whereas so-called adult stem cells were thought to be useful for forming a narrower range of tissue types. The problem with producing embryonic stem cells was that human embryos–nascent human beings–had to be destroyed in the process.

This is great for a couple of reasons…#1…It goes almost without saying that we ALL want to find cures to the horrible diseases that continue to evade modern medicine….The problem with human embryonic stem cell research is that you have to cross moral and ethical lines that many do not want to cross…#2 and much less important than the 1st reason…This is no longer a wedge issue in the Democrats favor for 2008…Former Sen. Jim Talent can tell you why this is important…

Romney’s Willie Horton

Check out this…

Mitt Romney is calling for the resignation of a Massachusetts judge who was one of his political nominees when he was governor, after the judge ordered the release of a violent criminal who once threatened to kill Romney and is now being held in the murders of a newlywed Washington state couple.

The GOP presidential candidate earlier condemned the judge’s decision but would not apologize for the actions of Superior Court Judge Kathe M. Tuttman, even though he had a hand in her appointment.

In Washington state, the father of the newly-married bride who police say was murdered by Tavares wants Romney held accountable for the judge whose decision set Tavares free.

“He was the governor — he picked this judge,” Beverly Mauck’s father, Darrel Slater, 51, told the Herald. “He should be answering for what happened.”

A Few Notes and Polls….

This will be my last post until Saturday…Happy Thanksgiving!

Great Read by Jon Martin…

Because despite his dozens of visits over the past two years, the millions he’s plowed into TV and the formidable organization he’s built up, Romney still has three inter-connected challenges: the cemented flip-flop narrative, his Mormon faith and his inability to connect with some voters at a personal level.

These difficulties are borne out inside the numbers. While Romney enjoys a lead among moderates/liberals, Huckabee has inched ahead (though still within the margin) with conservatives. Among evangelical Protestants, it’s even more stark — Huackabee leads by some 22 percent over Romney. And on social issues like abortion or gay marriage, Huckabee enjoys his only issue advantage over Romney.

Two other questions reflect Huckabee’s appeal on matters of personality and likability: He has moved into a tie with Romney on questions about which candidate best understands people’s problems and which is most honest and trustworthy.

As Chris Cillizza often writes about the Dem contest, Iowa’s GOP contest is shaping up to be a heart-versus-head match-up.

For reasons of their own personal faith, ideological convictions and just a plain comfort level, the conservatives who dominate the caucuses appear to be coalescing around Huckabee.

Washington Post weighs in HERE…

Huckabee’s gains were concentrated among the party’s conservative core. He saw a 28-percentage-point jump in support from evangelical Protestants, to 44 percent, and a 19-point rise among conservatives, to 30 percent. Among previous caucus attendees, his support increased from 9 percent to 29 percent.

Huckabee probably benefited from the decision of Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.) and others to quit the race. Brownback and Huckabee had been competing for many of the same religious and conservative voters. Moreover, Huckabee’s gain in this poll does not come at the expense of those still running, all of whom are faring about the same as they were in July.

Reuters/Zogby GOP National Primary

  • Rudy Giuliani 29% (28%)
  • Fred Thompson 15% (20%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% (4%)
  • John McCain 9% (8%)
  • Mitt Romney 9% (14%)
  • Ron Paul 5% (3%)
  • Not Sure 21% (18%)

Survey of 503 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 14-17. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll released October 14 are in parentheses.

GOP Nomination

  • Fred Thompson 21%
  • Mitt Romney 21%
  • Rudy Giuliani 13%
  • Mike Huckabee 12%
  • John McCain 9%
  • Ron Paul 8%

    • South Carolina Survey of 702 Likely GOP Voters
    Conducted November 20, 2007 by Rasmussen Reports