Rasmussen Reports has provided an analysis that is getting very little buzz in the media, by the campaign, or by the bloggers. Huckabee is within 3% points (46% – 43%) in a national head-to-head match-up against Hillary Clinton. Those are the numbers are BETTER than Rudy AND Fred in the exact same match-up, both gentlemen losing 48% to 42%. So the “Support Rudy because he can win” line seems not to be catching on so much as Mike Huckabee’s Message.
But the important thing is not the head to head percentage points… it is the electoral match-up. Which candidate can win which state? Surprisingly enough, I have some results below that show Clinton with her 46% national polling numbers, but a loss of the electoral college vote 336-202, in favor of Huckabee.
Granted that the results are non-scientific, and acquired by a calculation of debate performance match-ups, VP selection, policy, time in state, and ability to campaign… but the outcome is interesting. Interesting because it forces you to look at what states are in play, and which ones will have to change hands to give either candidate a win. This is something greatly overlooked by the nation who is seemingly obsessed with a national popularity number over an electoral number… which is only playing into the hands of the anti-electoral college movement.
In this demonstration, California was won by less than 1%. This could be a reality because of the strong “anyone but Hillary” movement, even by those on the left. Florida is always in play, as it has such a diverse voting pool. Other swing states will naturally be in play, but the effect of a Clinton candidacy will surely drive more anti-Clinton voters to the polls. This closely follows the trend that was discussed about a month ago which showed that 51% of Independents and Democrats definitely would not support Clinton in a general election.
The bottom line is that Electorally, Mike Huckabee has a better chance of keeping key states that have been won in the last few presidential elections, and the potential for picking up some additional key states… as he is the only candidate with a true conservative message, and thus the only TRUE Anti-Hillary!
