Read Jim Geraghty’s thoughts on Polls before the Caucus…
As we see poll numbers coming out of Iowa this fall, we ought to keep in mind that the final preferences of those six percent or so on caucus night and the leaders in polls conducted in the closing months of the preceding year tend to be distant relations.
For example, on Halloween 2003, a poll conducted for KCCI TV-8 in Des Moines put Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean tied at 26-percent each. John Kerry was third with 15-percent, followed by John Edwards at 8 percent.
A little later…
But while we chuckle at past comments from pollsters calling Dean a “juggernaut” we should note that most pollsters’ results do get closer to the final results in the last days of the campaign. For example, the Iowa Poll, released the day before the caucuses in 2004, found that 26-percent of the 606 Iowans they polled were for Kerry, with Edwards at 23-percent, 20-percent for Dean, and 18-percent for Gephardt.
The final results were Kerry at 38-percent, Edwards at 32-percent, Dean at 18-percent, and 11-percent for Gephardt. Even if the percentages were off (by double digits for Kerry and Edwards!) they did manage to get the order right.
And finally…
“The history of Iowa suggests you’ll see some motion in the numbers in the final months,” McLaughlin says. “Bush fell from 50-to 41-percent; he wasn’t in a position where he’s going to lose his lead, but he lost ground.” He noted that in 1996 there were significant shifts in the last 12 days - Dole gained, and Lamar Alexander and Pat Buchanan rose and passed Steve Forbes. “It’s not so much that the polls we’re seeing right now are inaccurate. It’s that you could see motion within the voters.”
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